How Are A-Level Predicted Grades Decided?

In Year 13, your A-Level predicted grades might suddenly matter to you a lot more than they did a few months ago. They can influence which universities you realistically apply to and the offers you receive through UCAS.

However, a predicted grade isn’t a guarantee of what you’ll get in the summer. If you’ve been predicted a B but need an A, there is time to prove you’re capable of it. Likewise, being predicted an A doesn’t mean your work is done.

I’ll go though how A-Level predicted grades are actually decided, where your mocks might matter and what to do if yours are lower than you hoped.

What Are A-Level Predicted Grades?

An A-Level predicted grade is the grade your school or college believes you are likely to achieve in your final A-Level. If you’re applying to university before you’ve completed your A-Levels, your qualifications are entered as pending and your school or college provides predicted grades as part of your UCAS application. Universities then use those grades when assessing your academic potential and deciding whether to make an offer.

Keep in mind: a predicted grade is still a prediction. Your actual A-Level results ultimately determine whether you’ve met the conditions of a university offer.

How are A-Level predicted grades decided?

There is no national formula for predicted grades. But that doesn’t mean your teacher simply picks a grade.

Your prediction should be supported by evidence of what you’re capable of achieving. In practice, that can include your Year 12 exams, mocks, topic tests, assessments and performance throughout the course.

Say you’ve received:

Year 12 exam: B
September assessment: A
Recent topic tests: A, A, B

That’s considerably stronger evidence for an A prediction than:

Year 12 exam: C
September assessment: C
Recent topic tests: C, B, C

Both students might want an A prediction but only one currently has a body of results showing they’re performing around that level. That’s really what predicted grades are trying to answer:

Based on the evidence we have, what grade is this student realistically capable of achieving at the end of Year 13?

And because schools set their own processes, they can weigh that evidence differently.

How Mocks Affect Your Grades

A mock grade is not automatically your predicted grade.

If you get a B in a mock, there is no national rule saying you must be predicted a B. Equally, getting an A in one mock doesn’t automatically mean you should expect an A prediction. Mocks are useful because they’re one of the closest pieces of evidence your school has to an actual A-Level exam: you’re answering exam-style questions, under timed conditions, without your notes.

If you’ve been achieving As consistently and then have one poor mock where you get a C, your wider record still exists. On the other hand, if you’ve been working at a C all year and suddenly get an A in one mock, your school also has all of those earlier results to consider.

Don’t think of it as: “I got a B in my mock, therefore I’m predicted a B.”
Think of it as: “What does my overall record of assessments show?”

The stronger and more consistent that record becomes, the stronger the evidence for a higher predicted grade. Don’t be afraid to ask your teacher directly about how to achieve your goal predicted grade.

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Can your A-Level predicted grades be changed?

Yes, predicted grades can sometimes be changed before your UCAS application is submitted but you need evidence for a higher prediction. Say you’re predicted a B in Maths but need an A for a course you’re considering. There is a big difference between:

“I need an A for university. Can you change my prediction?”

versus:

“I was getting Bs last year, but I’ve achieved A, A and A in my last three assessments.”

The second gives your school new evidence that its original prediction may no longer reflect your current performance. This is also why improving at the start of Year 13 matters. If your prediction was largely informed by your Year 12 performance, a strong run of results can give your teachers more evidence to consider before your UCAS application is submitted.

Remember to be realistic about the size of the jump. Moving from consistent Bs to consistent As gives you a much stronger case for an A prediction. Asking to move from a D to an A without results showing that improvement is much harder to justify.

If you need to have a conversation with your school or teacher about your predicted grades, don’t leave it until after you’ve submitted your application. Predicted grades cannot be changed in the application once it has been sent.

What if your predicted grades are lower than the course requirements?

First, look at how big the gap actually is.

If a course asks for AAB and you’re predicted ABB, you’re one grade below the published requirements. If you’re predicted BCC, that’s a much bigger gap. Those are not the same situation.

You can still apply to a course when your predicted grades are below its entry requirements, but meeting the published grades isn’t a guarantee of an offer, and being below them doesn’t automatically tell you what the university will decide. Admissions policies vary by university and course.

This is why your five UCAS choices matter. You don’t necessarily want five courses all asking for grades above your predictions, but you don’t have to restrict every choice to courses comfortably below them.

A sensible approach is to look at a range of entry requirements, including courses around your predicted grades and options with lower requirements. Secondly, check whether you’re eligible for a contextual offer. Some universities offer reduced entry requirements to eligible applicants based on factors such as their school, postcode or personal circumstances. An AAB course, for example, might have a lower contextual requirement for qualifying students.

If you’re only one grade short, don’t write off a course based purely on the headline requirement. Check the university’s actual admissions information for that specific course before making the decision.

Final thoughts

If you’re disappointed with your predictions, don’t let that become a reason to switch off for the rest of Year 13. Being predicted a B doesn’t stop you getting an A in the real exam. Your final grade is determined by your actual A-Level exams, not by what your school predicts.

If Maths is one of the grades you want to improve, you can try a Breakthrough Maths A-Level class for free and see if our approach works for you.

Even if lower predicted grades affect your university options this year, they don’t close the door permanently. Once you have your actual A-Level results, you can choose to apply again in the next admissions cycle using achieved grades rather than predictions.